The new year brought a more positive tone to the global financial markets as major stock and bond markets recorded gains through the first half of 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posted a year-to-date total return 4.8% through June 30, while the broader-based S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) rebounded from its 20% loss in 2022 to notch an impressive total return of 16.9% over the same time period. As we will discuss in the section on Equities, the strong performance of the S&P 500 was led primarily by a handful of large company growth stocks.... More
Stephen M. Mills, CIMA®PartnerChief Investment StrategistBrad Bays, CIMA® PartnerPIM Portfolio ManagerHighlights: Fears of a banking crisis in the U.S. economy led to higher-than-normal volatility in the financial markets in the first quarter. The Federal Reserve may be soon approaching the point when they will pause interest rate hikes. Inflation pressures in the economy continue to subside....... More
In our TCM 2023 Investment Outlook & Strategy letter, we discuss our current market observations, our forecasts for the upcoming year and our views on investment strategies. Both the U.S. stock and bond markets experienced significant losses in 2023. We believe the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary tightening to combat inflationary pressures in the economy had a lot to do with the negative performance in stocks and bonds. As we begin a new year, we are still facing a continuation of Fed rate-hikes, above normal inflation, and the potential for slower growth in the U.S. economy which could possibly develop into a recession. In our letter, we address both the challenges and opportunities we see for the financial markets for 2023. The letter includes a one page Executive Summary at the beginning. We hope you find this information both helpful and informative.... More
2022 continues to be an unusually volatile year in both the stock and bond markets as investors adjust to changes in the monetary and economic landscape, in our view. While we see this volatility continuing in the short-term, we believe the longer picture is starting to look attractive for both stocks and bonds. For more details on our analysis and outlook for the economy and the financial markets, please click on our latest post.... More
View our most recent TCM Economic and Market Update where we address the volatility in the financial markets and what we believe lies ahead over the next 6-12 months. 2022 has thus far been a difficult year for investors. We have experienced a significant correction in both the stock and bond markets since early January due to high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears, in our view. While we believe this volatility might continue in the short-term, we believe the longer picture is starting to look attractive for both stocks and bonds. ... More
Our most recent TCM Market Update where we address the ongoing volatility in the financial markets. We have experienced a significant amount of volatility in both the stock and bond markets since the first of the year. We believe this volatility may continue for a while longer as the markets adjust the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy pushing interest rates higher and removing liquidity from the financial system. We address this issue and more in our most recent market update.... More
Highlights:The first half of 2022 was the worst year for stocks since 1970. The S&P 500 Index officially entered a “bear market” in June. The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates and reduce liquidity in an effort to fight persistently high inflation. . Inflation continues to show no signs of abating Although the U.S. economy remains resilient, rising interest rates and high inflation are putting downward pressure on growth. ... More
In this TCM Market Update, we address the recent volatility in the financial markets. We have experienced a significant correction in both the stock and bond markets since early January. We believe this volatility may continue for a while as the markets adjust to a higher interest rate environment. Please refer to our update for more details. ... More
Highlights:The first quarter brought several new developments that could impact U.S. economic growth for 2022. In March, the U.S. Federal Reserve shifted monetary policy to a tightening mode. Inflation continues to surge potentially threatening the economic recovery. The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted both the energy and commodity markets causing significant increases in the price of several commodities. The U.S. economy remains resilient despite near-term headwinds, in our view. ... More
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